Predicción fin de semana: 3 y 4 de junio

por | 31/05/2017

Buenas tardes,

De vez en cuando redactaré alguna predicción para el fin de semana próximo. La predicción tendrá una parte algo técnica y otra más sencilla. Las predicciones son no oficiales,  completamente personales, y basadas en la experiencia propia. Una predicción podría ocupar varias páginas, con cientos de explicaciones y mapas, por lo tanto a veces va a tocar resumir. Empezamos pues:

Sábado:

  • Situación general: En capas altas de la atmósfera (500 hPa) tendremos una vaguada, con eje sobre Galicia, y con su zona delantera y más inestable sobre el interior de la península. En superficie (SFC) tendremos una baja relativa sobre el interior de España de unos 1015 hPa. Con este escenario, a primeras horas del sábado sobre todo, esta baja inyectaría humedad en superficie desde el Mediterráneo que puede ocasionar algunos chubascos, menos probables por la tarde.ecm1-72
  • Temperatura: Con una isoterma prevista de unos 13 ºC a 850 hPa (+-1500msnm), espero una máxima de unos 22 ºC y una mínima en torno a los 10 ºC. Situación libre de heladas para los agricultores.

Domingo:

  •  Situación general: A 500 hPa, el eje de la vaguada habrá pasado, estando ya sobre el Valle del Ebro, y sobre Hacinas habrá flujo del oeste-noroeste. En SFC, la baja relativa se habrá retirado y dará paso a una dorsal que advectará (soplará) viento del norte más frío. Con esta situación, las tormentas más activas estarían sobre el este, Aragón, Cataluña, etc. Sobre Hacinas tendríamos ambiente más fresco (máxima de unos 17 ºC, mínimas el lunes de unos 5 ºC), nubes estratiformes que podrían dejar alguna llovizna débil alternando con ratos de sol, y poco más.ecm1-96

En resumen: fin de semana sin calores, y con posibilidad de lluvia débil el sábado.

———
Actualización: domingo 4 de junio:

La predicción del domingo cambió sustancialmente con el paso de las horas. Al final, ha sido un día tormentoso. Son cambios de pequeños detalles, completamente normales en una predicción a 4 días vista y en primavera. Sí vemos el mapa final que ha habido hoy (diferente al previsto hace 4 días), vemos claramente una vaguada a 500 hPa (color azul) al oeste de España, y una entrada clara de vientos de Levante en superficie (flecha blanca). Con esta configuración, además del este, gran parte de la zona centro se ha visto afectada por las tormentas.

Otro día ya veremos cómo saber la fiabilidad aproximada de una predicción a varios días vista, y cuánto nos podemos fiar de ella.

gfsopeu06_6_1
En la siguiente imagen de radar, vemos las tormentas afectando a la zona centro y NE.

201706041300_r8pb

Un saludo.

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