Predicción fin de semana 9-11 de junio: ¡llegó el calor!

por | 09/06/2017

Buenas tardes,

Después de un mes de mayo cálido, ya se ven los primeros calores importantes a la vista, y todo parece indicar que se alargarán en el tiempo, con algún refrescamiento puntual a medio plazo en zonas del norte de España.

Para intuir el grado de certidumbre a medio plazo en una predicción, recurrimos a las denominadas predicciones por conjuntos, también llamadas EPSgramas. Partiendo de la base de que no conocemos con total precisión las condiciones iniciales de la atmósfera, el modelo meteorológico trabaja con varios escenarios iniciales para valorar cómo afecta en la predecibilidad a medio plazo esa incertidumbre inicial.

En el siguiente EPSgrama para Madrid, vemos en la parte superior las diferentes posibilidades que baraja el modelo para la temperatura a 850 hPa (unos 1500 m) sobre la vertical de Madrid. Hasta el 15 de junio, todas las opciones están por encima de los 20 y 25º a 850 hPa, lo que sería equivalente a máximas de más de 35 ºC. Más allá del 15 de junio, aún con la incertidumbre que hay, la mayoría de las opciones son de calor, lo cual indicaría una ola de calor que puede ser duradera en la zona centro. Es decir, calor asegurado hasta el día 16, y probable también después. La línea roja indica la media de los últimos 30 años, es decir, tendremos valores 10 º superiores a la media durante varios días.

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Si ahora vemos el EPSgrama para Burgos capital, apreciamos menos predecibilidad a medio plazo, y más opciones de refrescamientos. Esto es debido a que hay opciones de entradas puntuales de viento más fresco del norte que se cuela desde el Cantábrico. Este viento fresco del norte que penetra a veces por Burgos en verano, rara vez llega a Madrid. De hecho, a veces llega a Burgos capital y no a Hacinas, protegido por el cordal del Ibérico norte.

Las líneas inferiores, indican los escenarios de lluvia, también mayores en Burgos. Serían posiblemente precipitaciones asociadas a alguna baja leve en altura que provocaría algunas tormentas.

 

gfsens06_42_-3_201

Y centrándonos ya en Hacinas y en este fin de semana:

Sábado:

  • Situación general: a 500 hPa, dorsal subtropical abrazándonos cláramente, sinónimo de calor en estas fechas. La vaguada se ve bastante al NW de Galicia, no afectándonos. En superficie (SFC), pantano barométrico, muy poco gradiente, predominando las brisas locales.

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  • Temperaturas: valores de unos 20-22 ºC a 850 hPa, traducido, unos 30 ºC de máxima en Hacinas. Valores de unos 24-25 ºC a 850 hPa sobre Madrid, traducido, unos 34-35 ºC en SFC.
    gfsopsp06_36_2

 

Domingo:

  • Situación general: a 500 hPa, misma película, con una Depresión Aislada a Niveles Altos (DANA) entre Portugal y Azores que no nos afectará por ahora. En superficie (SFC), se aprecia bien una pequeña entrada de viento NE sobre Burgos debido a la cuña anticiclónica y a la baja térmica del interior.

gfsopeu06_60_1

 

  • Temperatura: Vemos un leve refrescamiento por el norte, que apenas llegaría a Hacinas pero sí un poco a Burgos capital. Isotermas de unos 20 ºC a 850 hPa, unos 30 ºC en superficie. Hay bastante gradiente térmico en pocos km al norte y al sur, eso se traduce en incertidumbre, por lo que la máxima puede variar entre 28 y 33 ºC.

gfsopsp06_60_2
Y si nos fijamos en las retrotrayectorias previstas para el lunes en Madrid, vemos que la entrada cálida no es de origen africano. El calor no siempre viene de África. Hay  bastantes más factores que implican  el que una masa de aire se caliente.

 

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Buen fin de semana a todos. Tened cuidado con el sol, vamos a tener índice 10 de UVA a mediodía.

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