Predicción fin de semana 24-25 de junio: algunas tormentas y refrescamiento cercano.

por | 22/06/2017

Buenos días,

Llevamos 13 días consecutivos con temperaturas máximas por encima de los 30 ºC, y todavía esperamos que sea así hasta el domingo-lunes. Este fin de semana, además de algunas posibles tormentas, las máximas ya no se acercarán tanto a los 35 ºC, y a partir del martes se intuye un descenso de la temperatura gracias a la retirada de la dorsal y posterior llegada de aire más fresco del Atlántico, por lo que, tras un breve repunte hoy y mañana, podemos dar casi por concluida la primera ola de calor del verano meteorológico.

Sábado:

  • Situación general: a 500 hPa, con incertidumbre aún, parece que tendremos una DANA (Depresión Aislada a Niveles Altos) al oeste de la Península. En superficie, situación clásica de verano, con cierzo débil debido a la cuña anticiclónica y la baja térmica.gfsopeu06_60_1
  • Parámetros específicos: son ingredientes que hay que mirar a más corto plazo, pero que ya muestran “cosas”.
    • El índice CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) tendrá valores de unos 400-500 J/kg.
    • Se intuye cierta convergencia de vientos en superficie.
    • Incremento de la humedad a 700 hPa.

Con este escenario, el sábado comenzará con buen tiempo, con opciones de alguna tormenta a última hora del día; por lo que se recomienda realizar las actividades al aire libre por la mañana. La temperatura rondará los 30 ºC de máxima.

Domingo: Predicción con mucha incertidumbre aún.

  • Situación general: a 500 hPa, la DANA entraría por el SW-S de España, desplazándose hacia el Norte, para acabar re-incorporándose a la circulación general el lunes. En superficie, baja térmica con aporte de humedad de levante.

Con este escenario, con mucha incertidumbre aún, habría tormentas en todo el interior norte de España. Temperatura máxima rozando todavía los 30 ºC.

Estas situaciones complejas, que dependen de muchas variables, no se pueden definir bien hasta 24 h antes, a veces, incluso menos, por lo que actualizaremos posiblemente la entrada el sábado.

Buen fin de semana.

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